Midterms 16 Days Out: Senate Ratings Show a 47-47 Split With Toss-Ups Deciding Control
Fox News ratings put Democrats needing a net gain of four seats; Trump frames the vote as a referendum on his second term.
With the November 3 midterms 16 days away, the fight for Congress has narrowed to a handful of races. According to a Fox News live blog updated October 18, the network's Power Rankings show the Senate at 47 seats each for Democrats and Republicans, with six toss-ups and three leaners. The Senate currently stands at 53-47 Republican, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats for control.
On Saturday, President Trump rallied Republicans at Truist Arena in Highland Heights, Kentucky, urging voters to treat the midterms as a referendum on his second-term agenda. He promoted Senate candidate Andy Barr and House candidate Ed Gallrein and announced a proposed $100 million federal investment in a Kentucky pharmaceutical manufacturing facility.
In North Carolina, the Power Rankings rate the Senate race "likely Democrat," and Republican Michael Whatley, who is running against former governor Roy Cooper, predicted victory and defended his campaign's shift toward digital and streaming ads. In Arizona, a House seat held by Republican Jay Feely, a former NFL kicker, is rated "lean Democrat." Feely called himself a "rubber stamp" for his district's voters.
On the House, Speaker Mike Johnson said Republicans will keep the majority, though not by a large margin, describing it as "a working majority." A Fox News poll found 60% of voters were extremely concerned about government corruption, a number both parties are using in their messaging. Vice President JD Vance, at a town hall in Michigan, blamed the Biden administration and Iran for high gas prices and said he had seen no evidence of corruption by Trump or his administration.
From the Democratic side, Senator Bernie Sanders called Trump "the most dangerous president" at a Florida event and said Democrats had failed working-class voters on economics. California Governor Gavin Newsom warned that 2028 may lack a free and fair election unless Democrats win key races this year; the live blog notes he offered no evidence. Former President Obama is scheduled to campaign in Michigan on October 24 with Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed.
What to watch: ratings are snapshots, not predictions, and the blog reports no specific figures for Trump's approval or for enthusiasm. Pollsters Kellyanne Conway and Celinda Lake both cautioned that enthusiasm does not guarantee turnout. The dominant issues in the closing stretch are prices, the Iran war, and trust in government. We will report results as they come in.
Facts above are attributed to the linked reporting. Statements in a source's own opinion section are labeled as commentary. We correct errors promptly.
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